Memory Shortage Could Keep PC Prices Under Pressure Through 2028

The memory crunch squeezing PCs, servers and other electronics is not shaping up to be a short-lived problem. Micron says memory and storage supply-demand conditions are likely to be significantly tighter in 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026, with demand continuing to outrun available capacity even as manufacturers invest in new production.

That outlook matters well beyond data centers. AI infrastructure is consuming enormous quantities of high-performance memory, while the same manufacturers also supply conventional DRAM and NAND used across PCs, phones and storage products. When suppliers prioritize the fastest-growing and most profitable segments, consumer hardware has to compete for the capacity that remains.

Micron sees no quick return to balance

During its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings discussion, Micron said it expects both DRAM and NAND to remain supply constrained through calendar 2027 and 2028. The company expects industry HBM bit shipments to grow faster than conventional DRAM through 2028, reinforcing pressure on manufacturing resources that could otherwise support more mainstream memory products.

Micron also said it does not currently have a clear view of when supply will catch up with demand. Adding cleanroom space is slow and expensive, and usable output does not arrive the moment a new facility opens. Production has to ramp gradually, while newer memory technologies can require more manufacturing resources per delivered bit.

Prices are still moving upward

The immediate pricing picture remains difficult for buyers. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 10–15% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, while NAND Flash contract prices are forecast to increase 15–20%. Server DRAM remains undersupplied as suppliers prioritize advanced capacity for high-performance server products.

Those increases follow an extraordinary run earlier in the year. TrendForce had projected conventional DRAM contract prices to jump 90–95% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2026, with PC DRAM prices expected to more than double. NAND Flash contract prices were forecast to rise 55–60% in the same quarter.

DRAM and NAND may take different paths

The longer-term picture is more complicated than a single industry-wide shortage lasting unchanged through 2028. TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain tight in 2027 because AI servers, HBM allocation and delayed contributions from new capacity keep demand ahead of supply. Meaningful output from some expansion projects is not expected until 2028.

NAND could behave differently. TrendForce forecasts a looser NAND market in the second half of 2027 as higher-layer products and new fabrication capacity increase supply, while weak consumer-electronics demand limits growth on the other side of the equation. Stronger-than-expected AI storage demand could still absorb that extra output, so the forecast is not a guarantee of cheaper SSDs.

What this means for PC builders

For anyone planning a PC upgrade, the safest conclusion is that cheap memory cannot be assumed to return soon. DRAM remains the clearer pressure point, and continued competition from AI infrastructure makes a rapid normalization difficult to count on. SSD pricing has more room to soften later if NAND supply expands as expected, but current contract pricing is still rising.

New factories are coming. SK hynix, for example, plans new DRAM and NAND production facilities with first cleanrooms targeted for late 2028 and 2029. Those investments underline both the scale of expected demand and the long lead times involved. For consumers, 2027 is therefore likely to remain a challenging year for memory costs, while 2028 may bring additional capacity rather than an automatic return to old prices.

Where to find it

• Micron investor events and presentations